The dynamics of economics and demographic planning have finally caught up with the world's second largest economy China. The abolition of the one child policy comes amidst a global economic crunch, putting severe pressure on its young/ middle age population to continue funding the pension pot of the elderly.The Chinese demographic structure is an inverted pyramid with improvements in healthcare and an ageing population, while the age bracket of the working population has slimmed considerably. Just like France, i foresee a campaign by the government to encourage "love making" to boost population growth and reduce the pressure on the working population. Enjoy the piece...
With a restless toddler squirming in his grasp,
China's landmark abolition of its one-child policy on Thursday could not
be further from Ma Qingtian's mind.
It would be "wonderful" to
have a second child to grow up alongside his one-year-old daughter, but
government central planning policies aside, the 24-year-old factory
worker says the financial realities dictate his young family's own
one-child policy.
"My salary now is so low, don't things like a child's schooling and
nappies cost money?" he said. "Without tens of thousands of yuan, is it
enough? My salary is only so much, and it all goes on her."
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The decision allowing all married couples to have two children
reflects the Chinese government's concern over an ageing population and
shrinking workforce, pressures weighing on an already flagging economy.
It
is a dramatic departure from one of the Communist Party's most
notorious policies, instituted by Deng Xiaoping in the late 1970s, a
time when a fast-growing population threatened to overwhelm the nation's
resources and nascent economic growth.
Demographers estimate as many as 400 million births were "averted" as
a direct result of the one-child policy. If born, they may have joined
the 200 million or so Chinese still living below the poverty line today.
But
behind that big picture are millions of stories of heartbreak and
suffering, brutal intrusions into people's personal lives in the guise
of family planning, and forced abortions and sterilisations,
particularly in smaller cities and rural towns.
Last year, Fairfax Media reported the plight of Yu Rongfen, who had her foetus forcibly aborted while seven months pregnant, despite her desperate pleas. It would have been her second child.
On Friday, her brother Yu Rongrong said the trauma of his sister's
ordeal continued to haunt their entire family. He said local authorities
had threatened to go after their family businesses' tax affairs if they
continued to seek justice, and that they were given just 10,000 yuan
($2200) for medical expenses.
Heavy financial penalties are levied
on unauthorised births, while education and employment opportunities
are severely curtailed for undocumented children unable to obtain
identification and household registration documents.
While
attitudes have largely changed, especially in the cities, a traditional
preference for boys means hospitals in China are not allowed to divulge
the sex of unborn babies to their parents.
But the uncomfortable truth remains that China has the most skewed
sex ratio of male to females, pointing to both female infanticide and
the under-reporting of female births in the countryside. China's imbalanced sex ratio means by 2030 there will be 30 million men who will be unable to find a wife.
The
decision to scrap the one-child policy was announced at the end of a
four-day meeting of the Communist Party leadership in Beijing, designed
to formulate policies to feed into a new "five-year plan" focused on
helping China avoid the "middle-income trap" and transition from an
investment and export developing nation to a "moderately prosperous
society" powered by services, consumer spending and innovation.
Numerous
other exceptions, including for rural households and ethnic minorities,
were already in place when China relaxed its one-child policy in 2013,
allowing couples to have a second child if one of the parents was an
only child themselves.
China's workforce had grown by 100 million
people since 1990 but began to decline two years ago. Ten per cent of
the population is over 65, a proportion that is likely to double within
20 years.
But the uptake has been lukewarm. By May, 1.45 million
couples had applied to have a second child – about 12 per cent of those
eligible – disappointing demographers who had hoped the policy shift
would do more to alter the balance in favour of youth.
Jeremy Lee
Wallace, an associate professor at Cornell University's government
department, says the change was a "boon" for human rights but would not
radically affect demographic trends.
"Fertility rates are unlikely
to skyrocket in ways that will slow down China's rapid ageing. Birth
rates were already declining before the policy was implemented, and
surveys suggest few parents today believe that they can afford a second
child in China's expensive urban areas."
But Beijing locals Chen Bin, 31, and his wife Xiang Jingjing, 30, are among those certain they will have a second child.
Like
most Chinese born in the cities during the 1980s, they both grew up
without brothers and sisters and epitomise the social strain of having
to provide financial support to their parents and both sets of
grandparents. As only children, they were already eligible to have a
second child.
And despite acknowledging the financial strain, more
than anything they wish to have a sibling for their son, three-year-old
Chen Xiangru.
"As the only child of the family, we both deeply understand the loneliness of being an only child," says Xiang.
Credit: The Sunday Morning herald
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