When Carl Icahn put together an elaborate presentation on why he thought the stock market was in trouble, investors took notice — and started buying.
In fact, Icahn's doom-saying seems to have had just the opposite effect, with the market staging its strongest run of the year just as the famed activist investor pushed the opposite case.
Since his video, titled "Danger Ahead," hit Sept. 29 — followed by a CNBC appearance the following day — the S&P 500 has been on something of a tear, gaining about 7 percent and making a run at turning positive for the year.
It's a curious turn for someone more known for the "Icahn lift" that usually accompanies the stocks in which he takes an interest. Apple, Netflix, Herbalife and a slew of other companies have gotten significant bounces when Icahn stepped in.
This time around, though, things look different.
Icahn's warning, though, came amid heavy market volatility that may simply have exhausted itself by the time he made the rounds justifying his downbeat assessment.
"Many have noted Carl has been bearish for awhile, so his video is nothing new. Still, why did he take the time to actually make the video?" market strategist Ryan Detrick said in a blog post this week titled "Was That the Icahn Bottom?" "My guess is because things were so bearish just one week ago right now, he felt good about being bearish and decided to do his video."
Icahn did not immediately respond to a CNBC.com request for comment.
Detrick noted that stocks staged an important successful retest of their August lows, and sentiment had turned sharply bearish, enough so to serve as a contrarian indicator that a rally was at hand.
Cash flows, for one, show continued investor unease.
Another $5 billion left equity funds last week, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch. BofA's chief investment strategist, Michael Hartnett, said the stock market outflow, coupled with a massive $53 billion inflow to zero-yielding money market funds, indicates the market rally was "driven primarily by short covering rather than fresh risk-on" activity that would indicate a more solid foundation.Culled from CNBC
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