Tuesday, 29 December 2020

What they don't teach you in Business School - 2020 The year that defines us.


 I recently saw the movie 'Tenet' about a secret agent who was given a single word as his weapon and sent to prevent the onset of World War III. He had travel through time and bend the laws of nature in order to be successful in his mission.

As the year of ellipsis 2020 winds to a gradual end, as is customary at the time of the year one begins to take stock of the events that have brought gains and losses. While many analysts and pundits have always tried to come up with perspectives for the new year in prior times, many had guessed the year 2020 would be one of slower growth for the Nigerian economy, as the global economy was tipped for a 3.3% growth in 2020. It was a 'no brainer ' to understand that with slower hydro carbon sales and lower prices, there was bound to be hiccups in Nigerian being a mono product and import dependent economy. Some prepared for devaluation. increase in taxes, inflation etc, but no one expected a Pandemic that would throw the world economy and send most markets tumbling and disrupting many business models.

With a redistribution of wealth imminent and a restructuring of the world order, Companies like  Amazon,and  Tesla have blazed the trail  making Jeff Bezos and Elon Musk the world’s richest and their companies record setters. Governments around the world were forced in a chain reaction to impose lockdowns in many cities hoping to nip the transmission of the COVID-19 Virus in the bud. We are now fully in the age of DISRUPTION.

Zoom Video Communications,  an American communications technology company headquartered in San Jose, California providing video telephony and online chat services through a cloud-based peer-to-peer software platform and  used for teleconferencing, telecommuting, distance education, and social relations, reported third quarter total revenue of $777.2 million, up 367% year-over-year, number of customers contributing more than $100,000 in TTM revenue up 136% year-over-year, Approximately 433,700 customers with more than 10 employees, up 485% year-over-year.

Basically, the company’s revenue outlook takes into consideration the sudden huge demand for remote work solutions for businesses. The lock down automatically benefitted the company as many businesses needed to continue running as seamlessly as possible turned to it,

For companies like Amazon the Covid 19 could have been a God sent as the company brought on more than 175,000 new warehouses and delivery workers between March and mid-April to be able to fulfil customer orders. Amazon added 36,400 people in the three months ended June 30, bringing its head count to 876,800, an increase of 34% year over year making the company worth over $1trillion dollars and Mr Bezos the world’s richest man.

In Nigeria, many of the known billionaires experienced a clean ‘hair cut’ in their net worth largely as a result of devaluation and weaker consumer spending. Some of which sprang from supply chain disruptions, and cross border restriction, reduced cash inflows and liquidity challenges arising from significant downward pressure on demand as people tried to halt spending and prioritize especially with a lot of uncertainty. Businesses groaning under pressure had to adjust by cutting spending, laying off workers and staying lean.

The twin evil of the pandemic and oil shocks adversely affected the Nigerian economy as consumer spending power weakened. Borrowers were unable to repay their loan and this started to affect the NPL of banks. Banks reduced exposure to many borrowers in attempting to salvage the situation. Oil prices which were bench marked at $57 per barrel were now trading at $30 and had made the budget obsolete. People were no longer travelling and driving automobile so the demand for crude dropped and at a point in time Nigeria had vessels on the high seas begging to berth with no buyers for weeks. Nigeria as an import dependent country suffered as the global supply chain shut down. Ultimately the NSE Nigeria Stock exchange lost N2.3 trillion when foreign investors pulled out their funds and moved to US treasury securities in search of safety.

Access bank Plc. (a Nigerian Bank) was one of the most vocal as the pandemic hit Nigeria, Herbert Wigwe ( the Managing Director) in a video to all staff explained the rationale behind the banks intention to shed weight and close some branches, so as to increase its chances of survival. This may be construed as accepting the disruption of the banking model in Nigeria which may have implications for decades to come.

While many established market players were groaning in pain especially in the real sector, super markets, logistics and consumer giants saw an increase in their revenue as people started to panic buy, stocking up in order to survive for a long period at home.

Others below the poverty line especially the daily wage earners such as mechanics, Vulcanizers and other artisans, traders etc were left at the mercy of the government and well-wishers. However, the CBN and some state governments chiefly Lagos State in partnership with some prominent banks, and consumer giants set up a COVID-19 palliative fund and proactively set up isolation’s centers. In the midst of all these efforts there seemed to be some distribution problems as the recipients majorly reported ‘audio gifts’ or paltry distributions of rice in little hand cup portions.

These thus lead to increased insecurity and crime rate with the advent of the 1 million boys (armed robbers who stormed residences to unleash mayhem)

With the phased re opening of the economy, these abated and businesses tried to return to work but with most bankers working from home or shifts. (I guess the banks have also been smart enough to save cost by embracing remote office).

In all of these, the new economy is being born and some of the changes from the way we live birthed by necessity, fear and the need for survival are being seen in the medical world where health care is typically fragile and expensive. Information asymmetry as an advantage by some players who now link patients to doctors with the use of technology and tele-medicine, is creating a market which intends to slice a niche off the traditional hospital visits and deliver a customized experience in Nigeria.

Market shopping for food stuff can now be done online on many sites similar to the amazon style grocery home delivery, oke arin markets, many small businesses, restaurants, pharmacies and others have resumed home delivery. This has obviously increased the demand for logistic services and made it look attractive to market players for entry, the government also cashed in by imposing a licensing fee of N200,000 per bike for companies. In the midst of all these Paystack, a modern online and offline payment platform for Africans raised a 2nd round funding of $200m which is a vote of confidence in the payment space. On the flip side Health plus which is a chain of pharmacies has been in a tussle with its UK investor over the control of the company insinuations by the founder Bukky George that a known Nigerian businessman connived with the foreign investors to take control of health Plus and relegate the founder. The matter is still in courts and also the court of public opinion. All these show that the market has tremendous prospects if well harnessed in spite of COVID-19.

Joshua Cooper Ramus  in his book ‘the 7th sense’ talks about the central reality of the world we live in, connecting people, and machines. The links between humans and machines getting tighter with oceans of data readily available to be used for and against.

The availability of data and links in the era of Artificial Intelligence (AI) makes it a lot easier to seek and receive answers to the world’s deadliest virus yet. Countries can share knowledge on the COVID-19 strains, variants and its cousins which should speed up the delivery of viable vaccines and treatments. However, it is beginning to look like another Nuclear arms race with various Bio tech and Big Pharma coming up with their version of the Vaccine with claims and counter claims.

Big Pharma typically sees this as another opportunity to cash out, while Governments are eager to weaponize the availability of the vaccines.

As at the writing of this piece, several companies have started to ship and deliver their vaccines across the world with the UK, USA and other global leaders posturing on TV to take their shot, which is seen as an encouragement to the populace to take the vaccines and feel safe doing so.

The race for the future has earnestly resumed, with Africa not really factored in the equation. The Pfizer/ Bio Tech N vaccines with 95% effectiveness which are pricey have been bought by rich countries with countries such as Canada having access to 5 vaccinations per person while the poorer countries may have to jostle for the Oxford University/ AstraZeneca vaccine which is cheaper, with 70% effectiveness to be available to vaccinate about 1 in 10 people.

The world may no longer be looking at humanitarian consideration primarily as the rich world tries to take care of itself. It is indeed a time of harsh practical reality for all concerned.

With the advantage of weather, lifestyle (herbal concoctions), herd immunity and elevated defenses to most viruses, Africans can come out of this new world calculation at the upper end of the ladder with reduced infections and mortality if we properly educate on social distancing, use of face mask and continue the practice of eating alkaline (fruits) and develop our local herbal medicine into world class.

Just like the secret agent in the movie tenet who went through time to try to avert world war 3, as we cross over to the new year 2021, preparing our customary new year’s resolutions, we must hold the lessons and experiences of the landmark year 2020, which have been a classic ‘what they do not teach you in Business school’ free curriculum

Friday, 9 December 2016

Views from the mountain top-Sand of the times






The journey of a thousand miles starts with the first step. This summarizes the new global order which has been empowered by the recent victory of the populist movement’s across the globe.

Thursday, 24 March 2016

Buy Gifts at House of Demi and recieve a 30% Easter discount on purchases of N5k and above.


www.houseofdemi.com.ng


House of Demi is a Nigerian maker of Handbags & Accessories,Souvenirs and Promotional items made in our Lagos factory with strict adherence  to a global standard of quality.

Sunday, 20 March 2016

INEC Suspends Election in 6 LGAs, as 6 Die in Rivers State Re-run Poll

Military arrest Wike’s aide, governor chides commission over poor preparation
Due to violence and the prevention of electoral officials from distributing election materials, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) yesterday suspended elections in six local government areas in the Rivers State re-run elections.

Buhari’s APC govt setting Nigeria on path of anarchy – Fayose

The Ekiti State Governor, Ayodele Fayose, has raised the alarm over the fate of democracy in Nigeria, saying “the open display of contempt for free, fair and transparent election by the All Progressives Congress (APC) government of President Muhammadu Buhari as being witnessed in Rivers State presently is capable of setting Nigeria on the path of anarchy.”

Saturday, 19 March 2016

As it is!




We live in a beautiful country with so much potential, in almost 40 years of my  habitation on this side of the hemisphere never have I known a full week with uninterrupted power supply. Today we live in an oil rich country with very poor citizens mentally, physically, emotionally and spiritually. Petrol has certainly become the new gold! The shadow trade has taken over the market as supply of products has remained scarce  and epileptic. 

Tuesday, 5 January 2016

$2.1bn arms probe: EFCC writes Defence Hqtrs for release of more suspects


The Economic and Financial Crimes Commission, EFCC, has written to the Military High Command to release all the officers who were implicated in the fritting away of $2.1 billion meant for the procurement of arms for the prosecution of the terror war in the North-East.